The European Commission is committed to transparent and evidence-based policy making throughout the policy cycle. Simulation models are increasingly used in impact assessments to provide support to policy makers across a wide range of areas. Understanding and communicating uncertainty in model outputs is essential to ensure transparency and responsible use of models (a.k.a. uncertainty analysis). Identifying the most important sources of uncertainties is also a relevant task to undertake (a.k.a. sensitivity analysis).
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses should be systematically performed in modelling activities in support of policy making. Monte Carlo simulations are the straightforward method to propagate sources of uncertainty in order to quantify the variability in the model response of interest. The identification of the sources mainly responsible for the uncertainty in the output is often not trivial. The training course will focus on the identification of the relevant sources of uncertainty with the help of SIML@B, an online tool developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) .
Some exercises (using Excel) will be performed to guide the attendees throughout the use of SIML@B and to ensure a comprehensive interpretation of the results provided by the tool. The introductory part of the course aims to familiarize participants with the needed theoretical notions. The presentation is designed to be interactive and participatory.